基于RRM模型和不确定性分析的喀斯特地区生态风险管理——贵阳市案例研究

Ecological Risk Management in Karst Area based on RRM and Uncertainty Analysis:A Case Study in Guiyang City

喀斯特地区因自然条件和人类活动的双重作用,成为生态灾害频发的区域。区域生态风险评价应结合区域生态特征,从多角度衡量生态风险组分,进而识别生态风险的空间差异,为风险管理提供依据。以喀斯特典型生态脆弱区贵阳市为研究区,运用相对风险评价模型对区域生态风险特征进行识别,并采用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性分析,进而提出生态风险管理措施。结果表明:1)贵阳市生态风险具有显著的空间差异,呈现出以市区为生态风险高值区向周围区域辐射递减的空间格局;2)人类活动强度是影响贵阳市生态风险最主要的因素,景观格局稳定性影响生态系统的稳定性和恢复力,地形、石漠化在一定程度上加剧生态风险的发生;3)不确定性分析进一步验证了模型的有效性,并表明不确定性对风险评价的干扰是局部的,主要体现在低风险区。研究结果对贵阳市生态系统空间管理具有重要的指导意义。

Affected by natural conditions and human activities,karst areas have gained more ecological catastrophes. Regional ecological risk assessment combines regional ecological characteristics,and measures ecological risk components and identifies ecological risk spatial differences,which provide a basis for risk management. We took Guiyang City,which is a typical karst ecological fragile area,as our research area,and applied Relative Risk Model to identify regional ecological risk characteristics. Following Monte Carlo Simulation uncertainty analysis,we came up with ecological risk management measures for Guiyang City. Conclusions obtain： 1） RRM is efficient for representing ecological risk spatial pattern for Guiyang City,showing that ecological risk decreases from urban-dominated high level area outwards to suburb area; 2） Human activity intensity is the most important factor affecting ecological risk in Guiyang City,while landscape pattern stability affects ecosystem＇s stability and resilience. Terrain and rocky desertification will aggravate ecological risk to some extent; 3） Uncertainty analysis has furtherly verified models＇ validity. It showed that uncertainty will do local interference with risk assessment,mainly on low risk area. Results will hold an important and meaningful instruction to ecosystem spatial management in Guiyang City.