中国经济增长趋势的人口学逻辑

Trends of China Economic Growth in the Demographic Logic

针对中国经济新常态时期的经济增速下滑,尝试从人口经济学的视角进行解释。通过对美国的考察,发现人口世代规模的增加和减少的滞后效应会传导到大约20年后的劳动力市场,并藉新增劳动力的增加和减少对经济增长速度产生冲击。对中国数据的检验,即对中国过去人口世代规模演变轨迹的考察也发现与美国类似的结论。由于滞后20年的人口世代规模的下降带来的当前新增劳动力的减少是导致目前我国经济下滑的一个重要原因。通过构建一个内生优化模型进一步考察了90后和"00"后生育低谷进入劳动力市场对未来中国经济增长趋势的影响,模型结果显示,90后开始进入劳动力市场的2011年左右,中国经济增速为8.5%,且以后一直呈现下降的趋势,到2023年时为3%;"00"后进入劳动市场的2021年以后,中国经济增速将在一个低水位上轻微下降,并从2023年的3%下降到2031年的2.1%。上述这些发现,将使得我们在分析宏观经济趋势性特征以及在制定新常态时期中国所面临的老龄化、劳动力短缺以及人口红利消失等宏观经济问题的政策中,考虑人口世代因素,并在此基础上提出前瞻性的应对措施。

This paper attempts to explain economic growth decline in the from the perspective of demographic economics. We found that lag effect of new normal period generation size will be transmitted to the labor market after 20 years, and then through the changes of new labor force posted an impact on economic growth. By using the data of USA ,we prove that the mechanism of up - mentioned effects did exist. As to the data of China, we found a similar conclusion to support this effects. So we believe that the current economic downturn result from the lag effects of the generation size. By constructing a model of endogenous optimization we further in- vestigated the baby group of 90 and 00 entering the labor market and theirs＇ impact on China＇ s economic growth trend in the future, the model results show that when the baby group of 90 enter into the labor market in 2011, China＇ s economic showing a downward trend after 2023 till 3 % ;when the growth was 8.5 %, and it has been baby group of 00 enter into the labor market after 2021, China＇ s economic growth will fall slightly on a low level, and decreased from 3% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2031. These conclusion show a new perspective for us to analyze China macroeconomic trends against the background of demographic logic and give us a forward - loo- king response to solve the macroeconomic issues such as aging population, workforce shortages and disappearance of the demographic dividend in the new normal periods.