中国养老保险制度并轨资金缺口的动态模拟

The Dynamic Simulation of Financing Gap Emerged during China's Old-age Insurance System Integration Process

在中国,机关事业与企业单位养老保险制度并轨的实质是机关事业单位养老保险制度向部分积累制的转型,转型的过程产生的隐性债务累积起来导致了政府财政的资金缺口。在现行改革方案及相关统计数据的基础上,使用系统动力学方法测算了这一资金缺口的估测值。根据估算,养老保险制度并轨所产生的"老人"资金缺口约为3.73万亿元,"中人"的资金缺口约为1.08万亿元,总计约为4.8万亿元。在此基础上,讨论了处理该缺口的方案。

In China, the essence of pension system unification between workers in government agencies or public institutions and workers in enterprise is the transformation of old - age insur- ance system to the partially funded system. The implicit debt caused by the process of transformation accumulates and becomes a financial funding gap. In this paper, based on the current reform scheme and relevant statistic data, by using system dynamics method, the estimated value of the funding gap was calculated. According to ＇the calculation, there will be about 3.73 trillion Yuan＇ s finance gap caused by ＇ old people＇ and about 1.08 trillion Yuan caused by ＇ middle people＇ , which in total will be around 4.8 trillion Yuan. Based on this calculation, measures to prevent this gap was discussed.