结构压力、资源动员与极端组织的攻击策略

Effects of Structural Pressure and Resource Mobilization on Extremist Organizations' Attack Strategies

结构压力和极端组织的资源动员是影响极端组织攻击策略选择和转变的主要因素。当结构压力较小时,在资源动员中,极端组织的框架建构限定了其动员的目标群体。当其架构叙事得到具体落实与实践时,能有效地吸引动员的目标群体。在实际参与中,社会关系网络与空间环境会影响其大规模动员的效果。不同的目标对象存在群体性社会与网络化社会两种社会关系网络基础,同时空间环境对动员的影响也存在差异。因此,架构叙事和实践情况、社会关系网络与空间环境是影响极端组织大规模动员及其实力增长的主要因素,任何单一因素都不能充分予以解释。结构压力的增强会限制极端组织资源动员能力和攻击策略的选择。当结构压力出现实质性增强时,极端组织一般难以正面对抗,出于理性考虑,其最终会选择不对称策略。从极端组织的类型出发有助于理解复杂的极端主义现象。因此,在制定反恐策略时,需根据不同类型的极端组织,从影响其动员的各个环节进行处理与预防。

Structural pressure and resource mobilization of extreme organizations are the main factors that influence the choices and transformation of extreme organizations' attack strategies. When the structural pressure is relatively small,in the process of resource mobilization, the framing of extreme organizations limits their target group of mobilization. When their framing narratives are implemented and put into practice accordingly,which can effectively attract the target groups. When they participate it,social relation network and space environment are mobilization structure which will influence the mass mobilization. There are two kinds of social relations network for different target groups, such as group-based society and networked society; the influence of space environment on their mobilization is also different. Therefore,the framing narratives and their practice,social relations network and space environment are main factors that affect mass mobilization and the strength growth of extreme organizations,and any single factor can't explain this phenomenon sufficiently. The enhancement of structural pressure will limit the ability of extremist organizations' resource mobilization and their strategy choices. When the structural pressure increases substantially,it's difficult for extreme organizations to confront with them,thus choosing asymmetric strategy because of rational choice. The implication of this paper is that the types of extreme organizations will help us to understand the complex phenomenon of extremism. Therefore,when setting counter terrorist policy,we need to consider its impact on terrorists' mobilization and then take preventive measures to cope with it.