经济新常态下人民币汇率动态调整的策略研究

The Dynamic Management of RMB Exchange Rate under the Economic New-Normal

在经济新常态下,影响人民币汇率动态稳定的因素更加复杂,这加大了人民币汇率动态管理的难度。本文在现有研究的基础上,构建一个一般均衡模型,并通过贝叶斯方法进行参数估计,进而运用模型参数进行了脉冲响应分析,来模拟动态调整的过程。研究结果显示,技术进步、外部市场需求变动、财政货币政策调整和预期等因素都会影响人民币汇率的动态稳定。因此,目前宏观调控过程中要注重经济内外均衡协调,避免汇率的长期持续失衡,并加强汇率的预期管理。

Under the ＂New-normal＂, the RMB exchange rate has been influenced by more complicated factors, which has also increased the difficulty of exchange rate management. Based on the extant literature, the present paper models the dynamics of RMB exchange rate against the general equilibrium background and estimates the model parameters in Bayesian method. The impulse response analysis has been done with the estimated parameters. The results indicate that the factors including technology, external demand, fiscal and monetary policy and expectation can all affect the dynamics of RMB exchange rate. Hence, it is necessary to maintain the internal and external equilibrium, avoiding the disequilibrium in the long term and rein- forcing the expectancy management.