中国不同规模城市可持续发展综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development for different scale cities in China

城市是一类社会-经济-自然复合生态系统,城市的可持续发展指标体系和评价方法是衡量城市经济、社会、环境状况及可持续发展能力的重要手段。采用全排列多边形综合图示法,以中国277个地级及地级以上城市为研究对象,建立了不同规模城市的可持续发展指标体系,包括经济发展、社会进步、生态环境3类24项指标,对其2000—2010年的可持续发展能力进行了综合评价。研究结果表明:从不同城市规模类型间横向对比分析来看,随着城市规模的增大,经济发展、社会进步和可持续发展综合指数相应提高,生态环境指数却随之下降。从不同规模城市类型内的时间序列分析对比来看,2000—2010年不同规模城市的经济发展、社会进步、生态环境指数各个方面均有显著提高,可持续发展综合指数也伴随着提升。并且,巨大特大型城市在生态环境保护方面提高幅度最大;大型城市在社会进步方面提高幅度最大;中小型城市在经济发展和可持续发展综合能力方面提高幅度最大。但截止到2010年,不同规模城市的可持续发展综合指数均为Ⅲ级,可持续发展能力仅处于一般水平。探究了中国不同规模的城市可持续发展过程中面临的诸多问题,然后提出相应的对策建议,为今后的新型城市化建设提供参考。

Cities are complex socio-economic-natural ecosystems that have the highest concentration of people and their activities. Implementation of sustainable development is the necessary approach to urbanization. Sustainable urban development can be monitored using an indicator system that accounts for both the socio-economic development and environmental protection. We used 277 cities at prefecture level or above and a municipality directly under the central government in China as case studies to develop an indicator system for sustainable development of different scale cities that comprised 24 indicators in three themes：economic development, social progress, and eco-environmental protection. The capacity for sustainable development of the 277 cities from 2000 to 2010 was evaluated using the full permutation polygon synthetic indicator method. The comparison among different scale cities showed that the larger the city scale, the higher the levels of economic development and social progress and the better the comprehensive capacity for sustainable development, but the worse the level of eco-environmental protection. Concurrently, the overall level of the eco-environmental protection was the worst of the three categories for all city scales. The cities clearly did not observe the same degree of resource conservation and environmental protection as they did for economic development and social progress. This was a common problem that different scale cities faced during the urbanization in the past 10 years. Furthermore, the comparison within different scale cities from 2000 to 2010 revealed that the indicator values for economic development, social progress, and eco-environmental protection of different scale cities increased significantly in the same period. Similarly, the comprehensive capacity for sustainable development of different scale cities also increased. Additionally, during the 10-year period, the megalopolises had the greatest increase in eco-environmental protection, whereas the large cities had the greatest increase in social progress. The small or medium-sized cities experienced the greatest increase in economic development and comprehensive sustainability capacity. These results indicated that the increase in city scale decreases the potential to improve comprehensive capacity for sustainable development. Therefore, China should focus more on promoting the development of small and medium-sized cities. However, by 2010, the indicator values for comprehensive capacity for sustainable development of megalopolises, large cities, and small and medium-sized cities were 0.40, 0.29, and 0.25, respectively （where a value of 1 represents complete sustainable development）. The sustainability level was only moderate. This illustrated that different scale cities in China are facing many problems in the process of sustainable development and implementation of certain measures is required to guide future urbanization in China. In terms of economic development, it is necessary for cities to adjust the economic and industrial structure, raise the proportion of tertiary industry, promote the development of green and low-carbon industries, and build a more sustainable economy. In terms of social progress, government should improve the social management system and guarantee the rationality and fairness of education and healthcare resource allocation. As for environmental protection, we should promote the upgrade of environmental technology, reduce the energy consumption, and increase the investment in environmental pollution control. Attaining sustainable development requires simultaneous balanced development in economic, social, and environmental areas. Under such scenario, we can establish a new urbanization model that will lead us toward sustainable development.