基于P-S方法的天津市人口承载力分析

Analysis on Population Carrying Capacity in Tianjin Based on Possibility-Satisfiability

人口承载力分析是一个多目标决策的社会问题,承载力的确定涉及经济、资源、能源等因素。基于P-S方法的人口承载力分析是从目标实现的可能度和满意度这两个角度出发,建立可能-满意度函数,进而测算人口最优规模的过程。文章先对P-S方法进行介绍,再以天津市为例,应用P-S方法测算天津市人口的最优规模,并结合天津市人口发展现状及存在的问题给出相应的规划发展建议,以期对其他城市的人口规划发展提供借鉴。

Population carrying capacity analysis is a multiple target social problem. The measures of carrying capacity involve economy resources and source of energy. The possibility-satisfiability is a method to estimate optimal population by establishing two functions of possibility and satisfiability. In this paper, there is introduction about possibility-satisfiability, and then according to the national development plan of Tianjin, combined with the current situation of population development and the existing problems in Tianjin, we use the P-S （possibility-satisfiability） measurement to estimate Tianjin＇s optimum population carrying capacity of sustainable development, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.