缅甸军人与政治关系的现状与趋势

The Present Situation and Trend of the Relations Between Myanmar's Military and Politics

在从1948年1月4日独立至今的68年间,缅甸军人直接掌权或由其扶持的政党执政的时间共约56年。2015年11月8日,昂山素季领导的全国民主联盟在大选中获得压倒性胜利,军方扶持的联邦巩固与发展党惨败。2016年3月30日,民盟资深成员吴廷觉总统领导的新政府宣誓就职,取代退役将领吴登盛领导的巩发党政府。缅甸军人长期直接或间接执政的历史暂告结束,这是缅甸民主转型的里程碑。但依照缅甸宪法,军人仍保留诸多权力,是与民盟政府并立的另一权力中心,军人与民盟政府关系好坏将是影响缅甸政治发展的关键因素。缅甸军人完全退出政治尚需时日,不排除其再度干政的可能。

During the 68 years from its independence on January 4, 1948 to now, the National League for Democ- racy （NLD） won a super-majority of seats in the Union Parliament during the general election held on November 8, 2015, and the Union Solidarity and Development Party （USDP） supported by the military was defeated by the NLD. On March 30, 2016, the senior member of the NLD and the new President U Htin Kyaw took the oath of of- flee, and it replaced the outgoing government led by President U Thein Sein which is a retired general, which meant that the long - term direct or indirect military has ended for the time being. This is a milestone in Myanmar＇s democratic transition. But the Constitution still guarantees a lot of power and rights for the military, and the military is still another power center existing simultaneously, and the relations between the two sides will influence the Myanmar＇s political development a lot. It still needs a long time for the military to quit politics entirely, and it will be possible for the military to intervene in politics in the future.