淡化“南海仲裁案”与缓解中菲关系

Decreasing the Negative Implications of SCS Arbitration for Sino-Philippine Ties

南海问题早在中菲建交之前,就已存在于中菲关系之中,但并未影响中菲1975年建交。2013年初菲律宾提起"南海仲裁案"之前,尽管南海问题也曾多次使中菲关系遭遇麻烦,但中菲关系都能有惊无险地稳健发展。2013年初启动的"南海仲裁案"事实上最大化了南海问题对中菲关系的负面影响。"南海仲裁案"期间,中菲关系因南海问题而陷入建交之后的最低谷。2016年7月仲裁结果公布后,中菲关系就会在"南海仲裁案"的正式结果下运行。菲律宾新总统有意于发展异于前任的对华关系,但"南海仲裁案"已是最大的障碍。淡化"南海仲裁案"可能是2016年7月之后中菲关系的务实选择;淡化并不意味着放弃,仅是为了双边关系考虑,刻意对"南海仲裁案""视而不见"而已。淡化"南海仲裁案"应该是中菲南海"新共识"的首要内容。菲律宾坚持"南海仲裁案"与中国坚定地批评"南海仲裁案"都无助于双边关系,要求阿基诺之后的菲律宾政府明确放弃或者反对"南海仲裁案"也不现实。为了巩固"淡化"的效果,也为了避免类似"南海仲裁案"的事件再度出现,中菲双边应该努力推动南海实质性合作。淡化"南海仲裁案"不仅有助于菲律宾在中美之间都能发展起稳健的关系,还有助于缓解南海困局,并可能降低中美对抗的烈度。

South China Sea （SCS） issue between China and Philippines, which has made troubles for Sino-Philip- pine ties before 1975 when two states got the formal diplomatic relations, has not deterred the Sino-Philippine rela- tions before January of 2013 when the Philippines formally and unilaterally initiated the SCS Arbitration with the ob- jection from China. However, due to the SCS Arbitration by the Philippines, Sino-Philippine ties has been in the worst situations after 2013. It is necessary to decrease the negative implications of SCS Arbitration for Sino-Philip- pine ties. As the result of Arbitration, SCS has been the biggest challenge for Sino-Philippine relations, and it will be part of Sino-Philippine relations after July of 2016. Decreasing the negative implications of SCS Arbitration means that the Philippines government should not talk more about SCS Arbitration if Manila wants the better rela- tions with China. Furthermore, China, which should realize that it is impossible for the Philippines to give up the SCS Arbitration, would care and protect some of the Philippines＇ interests in disputed areas of SCS. Finally, it will be helpful for Sino-Philippine ties if two stats could do more for their cooperation in SCS and for SCS issue.