从供给侧判断“刘易斯拐点”:到来还是延迟

Judging Lewis Turning Point from the Supply Side:Arrival or Later

经济增速换挡的驱动力之一来自供给侧"刘易斯拐点"的出现,判断"刘易斯拐点"非常重要。笔者通过显示数据观察发现:即使我国在未来一段时间依然处于二元经济阶段,"刘易斯拐点"却已发生。从资本劳动匹配的视角计算东、中、西和东北四大地区的产业转移与劳动力之间的协调性,论证"刘易斯拐点"是否到来,结果发现:并非中国所有区域都进入"刘易斯拐点",其中东部地区"刘易斯拐点"出现,资本深化加剧,产业转型和产业转移同步;中西部地区承接产业转移加速,"刘易斯拐点"也已出现;东北地区"刘易斯拐点"尚未出现,劳动力净流出。东部和中西部地区"刘易斯拐点"出现的原因不同,前者是加速产业转型升级和化解产能过剩,后者则是加速承接东部产业转移,新增资本的配置效率不一样。为了更好地应对"刘易斯拐点"的发生,推进供给侧结构性改革,需要进一步加快产业转型升级,促进产业转移,挖掘第二次人口红利,同时提高劳动收入份额,提升资本劳动配置效率。

One of the driving forces of the economic growth transform is Lewis turning point,so judging lewis turning point is very important. Through the displayed data,this paper found even if our country were still in the stage of dual economy in the future,but the lewis turning point had happened. We calculated the interregional distribution of ideal rate of capital and labor and the actual rate of capital and labor in eastern,central,western and northeast China,found that： not all regions in China were entering the lewis turning point; the lewis turning point in the eastern region had happened,companying with capital deepening intensified,industrial transformation and industry transfer; The central and western regions speeded to undertake industrial transfer,lewis turning point also occurred; But lewis turning point was not the same between the east and midwest region,the former was to accelerate the industrial transformation and overcapacity,the latter is accelerated to undertake the eastern industrial transfer,the capital allocation efficiency is different; Lewis turning point in northeast China has not yet appeared. In order to better cope with the happening of lewis turning point,promote structural reform,it is necessary to speed up the industrial transformation and upgrading,to promote industrial transfer and to mine the second demographic dividend; to increase labor income share,to improve the allocation efficiency of capital and labor.