基于模糊层次-LEC法的罐区多米诺事故预防研究

Study on the Domino Accident Prevention of Storage Tank Area by Fuzzy Hierarchy-LEC Method

为研究石化储罐区多米诺事故预防重点,基于模糊层次-LEC法建立了多米诺效应事故预防模型.该模型从单一事故后果出发,当其危险等级为显著危险时考虑多米诺事故,构造其多米诺事故致灾因素的层次结构,通过构建模糊运算的评价集,将模糊层次与LEC方法有效结合,结果得到罐区多米诺事故的危险等级,量化了复杂多样的多米诺事故致灾因素,明确了多米诺事故预防的重点.实际案例表明,苯储罐发生单一蒸汽云爆炸事故比池火灾事故具有更高的触发多米诺效应的可能,其危险等级为显著危险,考虑该罐区的多米诺效应后得出其多米诺事故危险等级为极度危险,"企业的安全管理"所占权重最高,其中"第三方施工单位安全教育"问题应引起企业的高度重视.

The domino effect accident prevention model based on fuzzy hierarchy-LEC method was established to study the domino accident prevention of petrochemical storage tank areas. The model from the perspective of a single accident consequences start, when their level of risk was significant risk, consider domino accidents. By constructing the domino accidents hierarchy of the factors and constructing evaluation set, fuzzy hierarchy and LEC method was effective combined. The model calculation results can obtain the domino accident risk level of the tank areas, quantify the complicated factors of domino accidents, and clear the focus of domino accident prevention. The possibility of taking place the single vapor cloud explosion accident in benzene tank is higher than that of pool fire accident by triggering a domino effect. When benzene tank taking place the single vapor cloud explosion accident, its risk level was significant risk and when considering the domino effect, its level was extremely dangerous. The case showed that＂the enterprise security management was the focus of domino accident prevention, and the＂third party construction unit safety education＂problem should be taked great importance.