中国重大疾病保险理赔周期的拟合及影响因素分析

Claims Cycle Matching and Influencing Factors of Critical Illness Insurance in China

本文将重疾险的理赔周期分为从出险到报案和从报案到理赔两个阶段,分别用极大似然估计和经验贝叶斯估计对三参数Burr等四种分布进行了拟合,比较了中国各地区及中英两国重疾险理赔周期的分布特征,还分析了影响重疾险理赔周期的各种因素。研究表明,相对于发病而言,从死亡到报案的时间更左偏;但两者从报案到理赔所需的时间相似。三参数Burr分布能更好地拟合重疾险理赔周期。与英国相比而言,中国重疾险的理赔周期较短。众多因素影响着重疾险的理赔周期,如理赔类型、保单年度等,癌症、急性心肌梗塞和冠状动脉手术的理赔周期较短,而脑中风和肾衰竭的则较长。不同地区之间的理赔周期分布以及影响因素存在一定的差异性。

In this article, the claim cycle of Critical Illness Insurance was divided into two periods, the reporting period and the claiming period. The 3-parameter-Burr Distribution and lognormal distribution were used to match the claim cycle, and the characteristics of distribution in China and UK were compared. Some influencing factors were found out and analyzed. The research results showed that the reporting period of death was a little more tilting towards the left than that of illness. But the claiming payment period of death and illness were almost the same. Comparably,the 3-parameter-Burr Distribution was much better to match the claim cycle of Critical Illness Insurance than all other distributions. Compared with the UK insurance market, the claim cycle in China was a little shorter. There were so many factors affecting the claim period of Critical Illness Insurance, such as claims category and policy duration. The claim cycles were a little shorter for cancer, acute myocardial infarction and arteria coronary operation,while that for stroke and renal failure were longer. There were differences in claim cycle distributions and their influencing factors between regions. In the UK insurance market, more factors influenced the claim cycle, such as the age and sex of the insured, policy amount and policy duration.