纵向关联市场价格传导“放大效应”研究——基于山东省生猪产业链的分析

A Study on the "Amplification Effect" of the Price Transmission in the Vertical Related Market——Based on the Shan Dong Province's pigindustry chain

生猪产业链涵盖多个产业环节以及多个市场主体,关联产品价格的形成和传导极为复杂。本文利用价格传递率这一经济学工具,对生猪产业纵向关联市场价格数据作协整回归,分析价格传导的"放大效应"和"缩小效应"。研究发现:在价格上涨阶段,生猪价格拉动猪肉价格和仔猪价格上升,生猪市场向猪肉市场和仔猪市场传递的价格信号被放大;在生猪产业链相关产品价格整体下跌阶段,猪肉价格拉动生猪和仔猪价格进一步下降,而且生猪价格对猪肉价格也具有较强的向下拉动作用;下游市场向中游市场传递的价格信号被缩小,下游市场向上游市场传递的价格信号被放大。

Using the economic tool＂price past through ratio＂, this paper does cointegration regression analysis on vertically related market price in pig industry, to analyze the＂magnification effect＂or＂narrowing effect＂of price transmission. Main conclusion： in the stage of price rising, the hog price drives up pork price and pig price, and the price signal transferred from hog market to pig and pork markets is amplified; in the stage of price dropping, the pork prices pull down pig price and piglet price, and there is also a strong pulling effect from hog price to pork price; meanwhile, the price signal transferred from downstream market to middle market is narrowed, and the price signal transferred from downstream market to upstream market is amplified.