我国牛肉区域性价格波动及其冲击效应研究

A Study on China' s Beef Regional Price Fluctuation and Its Impact effect

本文利用2000年1月-2016年4月主销区、主产区及全国牛肉价格数据,通过构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析主销区、主产区牛肉价格变动及其对全国牛肉价格的影响。研究结果表明:主销区和主产区牛肉价格的变化均会对全国牛肉价格造成影响,冲击持续时间较长,约在5-8个月趋于平稳;除华东和西北两个地区外,其他地区牛肉价格的冲击作用均为正;主产区牛肉价格波动的贡献率普遍要高于主销区,价格政策调控切入点应放在供给层面;主销区和主产区牛肉价格对全国价格波动贡献率大小排序依次为东北、西南、京津、中原、华东、西北和华南。

Based on the monthly price data of the major beef production regions, the major beef consumption regions, and the national average beef price from January 2000 to April 2014, this paper establishes a Vector Autoregressive（VAR） model to analyze the volatility of the beef prices of the major production and consumption regions and its impact on the national average beef price in China. The results show that the volatility of the major production and consumption regions＇ beef price has an obvious impact on the national average beef price. Its influence last a long time, and the duration is about 5 to 8 months. The volatility of major production and consumption regions＇ price has a positive impact on the national average price, except that of the east and northwest of China. Besides, the contribution rates of the major production regions＇ beef price volatility are more than that of the major consumption regions.And it indicates that the supply is an important entry point of regulation and control policies to stabilizing the beef price. Moreover, the major production and consumption regions sorted by size of contribution rates are northeast, southwest, Beijing-Tianjin region, central, east, northwest and south of China.