基于改进选择实验模型的武汉市农地非市场价值测算

Measurement of Farmland Non Market Value in Wuhan Based on Modified Choice Modelling

针对目前我国运用选择实验法对农地非市场价值只估算属性价值而忽略属性水平的现状,本文运用选择实验法(Choice Experiment)中的条件Logit模型(Conditional Logit Model,CLM)测算武汉市居民对农地非市场价值不同属性水平的支付意愿,并分析受访者效用最大化时的武汉市农地非市场价值。研究结果显示:(1)武汉市受访市民对于农地非市场价值各项属性已有一定的认知程度,93.50%的受访市民愿意为保有和提升这些属性进行一定额度的金钱支付:(2)基于Log-likelihood的统计检验结果显示,既考虑不同属性水平状态又考虑受访者个体异质性特征的CLM III拟合效果最好,折合后得出武汉市单位面积的农地非市场价值为6483.56元/hm2:(3)受访者对是否愿意对农地非市场价值进行一定额度的金钱支付以及支付意愿的高低受其自身社会经济特征的显著性影响,诸如年龄、是否户主、家庭收入、支付主动性和家庭是否有存款等因素。研究结果表明,不同受访者对于农地非市场价值的同一属性的不同水平下具有不同的支付意愿,因此,该研究可以为农地保护管理者制定差别化的农地保护政策提供借鉴。

The purpose of this paper is to provide a more precise way for policy makers to understand the whole value of farmland and design more reasonable farmland management practices. Based on the survey data of Wuhan,different conditional logit models of choice experiment have been employed to estimate respondents＇ willingness to pay（ WTP） for the different attribute levels of farmland non market value. Results indicate that（ 1） Citizens in Wuhan have awareness of farmland non market value,and 93. 50% of them have positive WTP to preserve it.（ 2） Based on the result of log- likelihood test,the conditional logit model III（ CLM III）,which both take attribute levels and socio- demographical characteristics into consideration,behaved perfect. Per unit of farmland non market value is 6 483. 56 Yuan / hm^2.（ 3） Respondents＇ WTP for farmland non market value are influenced both by their awareness and socio- demographical characteristics.The conclusion is that respondents have heterogeneous preferences for different attributes and their levels of farmland non market value,which is important for policy- makers.