1999—2013年昆明市气温与降水量的变化趋势

Variation Trend of Temperature and Precipitation in Kunming During 1999—2013

为了解昆明近期气候变化和异常特征,为区域农业生产应对气候变化和异常状况提供理论依据,利用昆明1999—2013年气温和降水资料,进行气候均值、气候倾向率、距平、线性趋势和异常统计分析。结果表明:近15年昆明年均气温略呈上升趋势,降水呈下降趋势;气温增温率为0.007℃/a,降水下降率为18.758mm/a;干季增温弱于雨季,而雨季降水量下降幅度强于干季;冬春季呈气温偏高异常,且降水总量呈增加趋势,夏秋季呈低温异常,且降水总量呈下降趋势。

In order to understand the climate change and anomaly features in Kunming, so as to provide basis for regional agriculture production adapting to climate changes and abnormal conditions, the authors conducted the statistical analysis on climate mean, climate trend, anomaly and linear trend by using the data of temperature and precipitation in Kunming from 1999 to 2013. Results. The average annual temperature was slightly on the rise, but the precipitation tended to decrease in Kunming in recent 15 years; The annual mean temperature increased at the trend rate of 0. 007℃/a, the annual precipitation decreased at the rate of 18. 758 mm/a; The increasing trend of temperature is less obvious in dry season than rainy season, However, the rainy seasons precipitation decreased significantly greater than the dry seasons; The abnormal high temperature and increasing precipitation emerged in winter and spring seasons. However, the abnormal low temperature and decreasing precipitation emerged in summer and autumn seasons.