产业集聚对城市生态环境的影响和演变规律——基于2003—2013年数据的实证研究

The Effect and Evolution Rule of Urban Industrial Agglomeration on Urban Environment——based on test from 2003 to 2013

扩展了STIRPAT模型,测算出了中国286个地级及以上城市2003-2013年的产业集聚度、城市污染综合指数和环境规制水平,并探讨了城市产业集聚对城市环境的影响。产业集聚对城市环境的影响并不是简单地增加城市污染或减少城市污染的线性关系,而是存在着某个临界点,实证检验表明城市产业集聚对城市环境的影响呈现出"U"型演变的规律,产业集聚度的对数3.1161为拐点。基于此,提出了产业集聚生态化发展模式观点,包括生态工业园区发展模式和城市功能分区发展模式,使得产业在集聚过程中促进经济增长,但污染排放并不相应增加,从而产业集聚、经济增长与生态环境之间呈现一种良性互动关系。此外,合理控制城市人口规模、提高环境规制水平以及优化产业结构也是改善城市环境的重要途径。

We expand the STIRPAT model and calculate industrial agglomeration, comprehensive polluting index and environmental regulation level about 286 prefecture - level cities from 2003 to 2013, mainly discusses the effect of urban industrial ag- glomeration to the urban environment. Industrial agglomeration effects on urban environment not there are simple linear relationship of increasing urban pollution or reduce the pollution of the city, but there is a certain critical point, the em- pirical test shows that urban industrial agglomeration effects on urban environment present a ＂U＂ shaped the evolution law of industrial concentration degree of logarithmic 3.1161 as a turning point. Based on this, this paper puts forward the ec- ological industrial cluster development mode, including ecological industrial park development pattern and urban function- al zoning development mode, which makes industry agglomeration in the process of promoting economic growth, but the pollution emissions doesnt increase, industrial agglomeration, economic growth and ecological environment in a benign in- teraction among them. In addition, the reasonable control of the urban population scale, improvement of environmental regulation level and optimizing the industrial structure is an important way to improve the urban environment.