中国性病疫情的时空差异与经济驱动机制——以淋病、梅毒为例

Spatio-temporal Differences of Sexually Transmitted Diseases in China and Its Relationship with Economic Development:A Case Study of Gonorrhea and Syphilis

综合采用变异系数、收敛性检验、分位数回归等方法考察中国2004―2014年2类经典性病(淋病、梅毒)疫情的时空差异特征与经济驱动机制,结果表明:1)2004年以来,中国2类性病的发病水平呈现"淋病降、梅毒升"的时序变化特征,病种结构发生转换,总体发病规模持续扩增;2)每年新发淋病数的地区差异略有增加,发病率差异持续降低,总体发病水平明显收敛,各地区预期会逐步趋同于某一较低水平,梅毒疫情预期将逐步趋同于某一较高水平;3)经济发展对低、中、高3类发病水平的疫情变化均有显著的正向影响,部分地区存在明显的"经济越发展,疫情越严重"现象。

Sexually Transmitted Diseases（STD） is a kind of transmitted disease which is seriously harmful to human health.This paper,using the variation coefficient,the convergence test method and quantile regression,focused on the spatio-temporal characteristics and economic driving mechanism of gonorrhea and syphilis epidemic in China,2004-2014.The results showed that：1） The patient number of gonorrhea had decreased,but syphilis patients increased since 2004,the relative proportion was transformed,and the overall patient number continuously increased.2） The regional difference of gonorrhea patients slightly increased,while the morbidity continuously decreased.There was obvious convergence of all regions,and gonorrhea morbidity was expected to gradually reach a lower level,while the syphilis epidemic was expected to gradually reach a higher level.3） There was significant positive impact of economic development on different epidemic level,and in some regions it was shown that the more the economy developed,the more serious the epidemic was.It was considered that this research would provide some references for STD＇s treatment and prevention in China.