俄罗斯在叙利亚危机中的博弈态势和军事行动评析

Analyses of Russia's Game Situation and Military Action in the Syrian Crisis

俄罗斯在叙利亚危机中的博弈态势有一个变化过程:旁观期—被动期—主动期。从战略层次来看,当初俄出兵有着多重考虑,出兵既是对叙局势朝向自己不利变化的回击,也着重应对俄在地缘政治上面临的恐怖主义威胁和北约的军事压力。俄出兵从实际效果看的确取得了巨大成功,当然我们也要看到出兵潜在危险,而且出兵并没有使俄摆脱与西方国家的紧张关系,对油价的影响也微乎其微。

Russia＇s game situation in the syrian crisis had a changing process of side - looking - passiveness - activeness. From the perspective of strategy levels, Russia＇s troop dispacth had taken more into consideration, which fought back unfavourable changes resulting from current situations and focused on terrorist threats confronted in the respect of geopolitics and NATO~ mili- tary power. Troops dispacth had achieved great success from the actual effect, with potential danger, which had not made Russia get rid of tensions with western countries, and had little influence on oil prices.