新疆喀什市冬小麦生育期气候因子变化特征及其影响分析

Variation Characteristics and Impact of Climate Factors During Winter Wheat Growth in Kashgar,Xinjiang

为研究喀什冬小麦区气候对小麦生长的影响以及为农作物生产提供气象服务。利用1981—2014年喀什市冬小麦生育期气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,采用气候学统计方法,研究了喀什市主要气候因子变化特征及其对冬小麦发育期的影响。结果表明,喀什市冬小麦生育期平均气温年际变化呈上升趋势;降水量除了越冬后前2个月(3—4月)呈线性减少趋势外,其余时期呈明显的增加趋势;有效积温、日照时数均呈增加趋势;近34年冬小麦各发育期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势,尤其是起身期、拔节期的提前趋势较明显,但是越冬开始期呈延迟趋势。气温、有效积温、日照时数与冬小麦各发育期呈负相关。总之,气温升高、有效积温、日照时数增加是喀什冬小麦生育期提前的主要原因,喀什地区气候变暖对冬小麦生育期的影响较为显著。

The study aims to provide references for crop production in winter wheat area of Kashgar. The dataof temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration from 1981 to 2014 during the growth period of winter wheat inKashgar was used to study the variation characteristics of climate factors and their effects on winter wheatgrowth and development by the climate statistical method. The results indicated that the annual averagetemperature change during winter wheat growth in Kashgar showed an increasing trend. The precipitationshowed a decreasing trend in the first two months after winter（March and April）, and an obviously increasingtrend in the rest time. Meanwhile, the effective accumulative temperature and the sunshine duration showed anincreasing trend. Each development stage of winter wheat was ahead of schedule in different degrees duringrecent 34 years, especially the early stage and the jointing stage, but the overwintering stage showed a trend ofdelay. The temperature, effective accumulative temperature and the sunshine duration were negativelycorrelated with each development stage of the winter wheat. In short, the main reason for the advance of winterwheat growth period was the increase of temperature, effective accumulative temperature and sunshineduration. The impact of climate warming on winter wheat growth was significant in Kashgar.