甘肃省近54年气温时空变化特征分析

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Temperature in Gansu Province in Recent 54 years Based on ArcGIS Analysis

基于甘肃省1960~2013年27个气象站点以及省外16个站点的年尺度和月尺度的气温数据,通过GIS空间分析技术、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和其他数理统计方法相结合分析了54年来甘肃省气温时空变化特征及其演变规律.结果表明,54年来甘肃省气温总体呈上升趋势,其中年平均气温、年平均最高和最低气温、年极端最高气温在0.05显著性水平下均呈显著上升趋势,尤其年平均最低气温增幅最大,只有极端最低气温呈小幅下降趋势,但在0.05显著性水平下不显著.季节尺度上,春夏秋冬四季各气温参数也均呈现出波动式上升趋势,尤其冬季气温上升幅度最大.年际尺度上,各气温参数在20世纪60年代均发生突变,20世纪90年代末开始甘肃省气温整体上升趋势显著.空间变化上,受海拔高度、地形及下垫面等因素影响显著,整体上呈现出河西地区高于河东地区,城市地区高于农村地区,其中陇南的武都区气温最高,而气温最低的地区是位于河西走廊与陇中高原分界线的乌鞘岭,且城市区域增温显著.

The temporal and spatial characteristics of the temperature variation are analyzed during 1960-2013 in Gansu province. Combined with spatial analysis technology of GIS,Mann-Kendall examination and mathematical statistic method, the temperature variation is analyzed in Gansu province. Results show that the temperature is increasing during last 54 years. The annual average temperature （AAT）, annual average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and extreme maximum temperature are increasing significantly at 0.05 significance level. Especially AAT rises with the largest rate. At the seasonal time scale, AAT in spring, summer, autumn and winter also presents increasing trends with {~uctuation,and the temperature in winter rises at the largest rate. At the decadal time scale, the abrupt change of AAT occurs during 1960s. And it increases significantly from the late 1990s. At the spatial scale, the temperature presents a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast of Gansu province due to the effect of the altitude,topography and underlying surface. On the whole,the temperature in Hexi area is higher than that in Hedong area,urban areas is higher than rural areas. And the highest temperature happens in Wudu. Besides, the lowest temperature area is located in Wushaoling. Urban areas are significant warming.