基于气温累积效应的冬季燃气日负荷预测——以西安市为例

Forecast on daily gas load based on the accumulative effect of temperature in winter:A case study of Xi'an

为了确保民生用气平稳有序,降低燃气管道运行风险,对城市用气短期负荷作出准确预测尤为重要。通过对西安冬季气温与燃气日负荷之间的关系分析,发现在不同的气温条件下,气温累积效应的强度不同,对燃气日负荷影响程度也不同。因此,提出基于累积系数k的气温修正公式,在新公式中引入了预测日平均气温、低温持续天数及预测日前3天温差等因素的影响,从而使燃气日负荷与气温之间的相关程度得到较大提高。实例预测结果表明:通过累积效应系数对预测日气温进行修正后,得到了较高精度的燃气负荷预测结果,修正后预测值与实际燃气负荷的平均相对误差由修正前的7.78%降至4.63%。

In order to ensure the steady and orderly gas supply to the residents and reduce the risk of gas pipeline in operation, it is necessary to accurately forecast the short-term load of city gas. In this paper, the relationship between the temperature in winter and the daily gas load in Xi＇an is discussed. It is found that, under different temperatures, the accumulative effect of temperature shows variable strength and also has different influences on the daily gas load. Accordingly, the temperature correction formula based on the accumulative coefficient k is proposed, which considers the influences of such factors as forecasted daily average temperature, lasting days of low temperature, and temperature difference in three days before the forecast. In this way, the correlation between daily gas load and temperature is improved greatly. Practical forecast shows high-precision results of gas load after the forecasted daily temperature is corrected by the accumulative coefficient. The average relative error between the forecasted and actual gas load reduces from 7.78% before correction to 4.63% after correction.