第三产业发展与城镇化水平互动关系研究——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

Research on the Interactive Relationship between the Tertiary Industry Development and the Urbanization Level——A Case of the Efficient Ecological Economic Zone in the Yellow River Delta

为准确分析城镇化发展与产业结构间的内部影响规律,文章选取2000-2014年黄河三角洲高效生态经济区第三产业就业占比和产值占比以及城镇化水平的时间序列数据,通过变动趋势图、Granger因果关系检验以及VAR短期和中长期分析等对第三产业发展与城镇化水平相互间的影响路径和冲击效应进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第三产业发展与城镇化水平两者间是相互影响的;在短期内,第三产业的发展会推动城镇化的进程,而城镇化发展对第三产业就业的带动作用却不能立即显现;城镇化的提升会立刻带动第三产业产值的增长,但第三产业产值对城镇化的推动作用需要一定的滞后期;城镇化发展过程中不具有惯性特征,而是具有一定的后发优势。因此,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区需进一步优化产业结构,拓展现代化服务业的发展空间,充分发挥城镇化发展的后发优势。

In order to analyze the internal impact laws between urbanization development and industrial structure, according to the time series data of the employment and output pruportion of the tertiary industry and urbanization of the efficient ecological economic zone in the Yellow River Delta from 2000 to 2014, the paper analyzed the impact path and shock effect between urbanization and the tertiary industry by using the change trend chart, Granger causality test and short term and long term analysis of VAR. The results showed that the tertiary industry development and the urbanization level are mutually affected ; In the short term, the tertiary industry development can promote the process of urbanization, but the urbanization cannot drive the de- velopment of the tertiary industry＇s employment;The impact of urbanization on the output value of the tertiary industry can be apparent immediately, but the impact of the output value of the tertiary industry on the urbanization has the characteristic of lag; The process of urbanization does not show the characteristic of inertia and it has the advantage of backwardness. Therefore, the efficient ecological economic zone in the Yellow River Delta needs to further optimize industrial structure, develop productive service industry vigorously, expand the development space of modern service industry and give full play to the latedevelopment advantage of the urbanization development.