基于省级面板数据的我国城镇化内部协同发展研究

Research on the Internal Coordinated Development of Urbanization in China Based on the Provincial Panel Data

文章通过对城镇化内部协同发展基本内涵的分析,将城镇化分为人口、经济、社会、空间和生态五个系统,构建协调发展评价指标体系,选用耦合协调模型定量测度我国31个省、市、自治区2005-2014年的城镇化内部协调发展水平,使用SPSS对我国2015-2024年间城镇化内部协调发展水平进行了预测,并使用灰色关联模型探究了各指标对于城镇化内部协调发展的贡献水平。研究结果显示,我国城镇化内部协调发展水平有所提升,但存在明显的东部沿海、中部与西部之间的差异;二、三产业产值比重等指标对于城镇化协调发展的贡献较大。

Through analyzing the basic connotation of the internal coordinated development of urbanization, the paper divides the urbanization into five systems which includes population, economy, society, space and ecology, constructs the evaluation index system of the coordinated development, selects the coupling coordination model to quantitatively measure the standard of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2014, uses SPSS to predict the standard of internal coordinated development of urbanization in China from 2015 to 2024, and employs grey correlation model to explore the contri- bution level of each index to the coordinated development of urbanization. The results show that the standard of internal coordinated development of urbanization is improved in China, but there are obvious differences between the eastern coastal, central and western, index such as the proportion of secondary and tertiary industry output value has a better contribution to the coordinated development of urbanization.