福建省能源安全评价及特征分析

The Evolution and Characteristics of Fujian's Energy Security

通过构建区域能源安全评价指标体系,应用主成分分析法对福建省能源安全展开评价研究.结果表明:近35年来,福建省能源安全呈"W"型演进趋势,且目前处于优化阶段.能源供应和使用维度是影响能源系统整体安全程度较为关键的两个维度.从三大维度变化态势来看,能源供应维度呈现优化态势,能源服务普惠维度呈现出稳定小幅提升特征,而能源使用安全性整体演化过程并未像能源供应维度呈现出显著的改善态势.最后,提出了优化福建省能源安全的政策路径.

The paper built an Energy Security Index（ ESI） based on Principal Component Analysis（ PCA） method. The results showed that： In the last 35 years,the energy security performance of Fujian was featured with ＂W＂. Both the energy supply security and energy utilization security significantly affected the overall energy security. From the point of changes in the three dimensions,with development of hydropower,wind power,nuclear power and other new energy,energy supply security dimension presented an increasingly optimizing during the study period. Meanwhile,energy services equity dimension showed slightly optimized affected by the rapid rise in the price of electricity,and the continuing popularity of social grid infrastructure. Unlike the other dimensions,energy utilization dimension did not show significant improvement. The reason lied in that conventional fossil fuels in the energy consumption structure occupied the dominant position in the long term,thereby resulting in increase of energy intensity and carbon emissions. Lastly,some policy suggestions were put forward to enhance Fujian＇s energy security.