基于GM(1,1)和D-S证据理论的直觉模糊应急决策方法

Emergency decision making methods for intuitionistic fuzzy sets based on GM(1,1)and D-S evidence theory

针对应急决策问题,提出1种基于GM(1,1)与D-S证据理论的直觉模糊决策方法。借助记分函数和犹豫度构建以直觉模糊数为建模对象的GM(1,1)模型,并基于该模型预测下一时间段的决策信息;根据直觉模糊熵权法确定指标权重,通过指标权重与直觉模糊集本身特点,构建D-S证据理论的基本概率分配函数,并根据D-S证据理论的信息融合规则进行方案的信息融合,进而对方案进行排序;通过某特大煤矿坍塌事件进行实证研究,验证了本文提出方法的合理性与可行性。

To deal with emergency decision making problems with the attribute values of corresponding alternatives in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, a method based on GM（1,1） model and D-S evidence theory was proposed. Firstly, the GM（1,1） model of the sequences of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers was introduced by using score function and hesitant degree of intuitionistie fuzzy numbers, by which the decision information the next period was forecasted. Then, the weights of index were determined by intuitionistic fuzzy entropy. According to the weights of index and the characteristics of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the mass func- tion was built. And the decision information was fused by DS evidence theory fusion rules, by which the alternatives were sor- ted. Finally, this method was used in extreme coal mine collapse to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness.