交通基础设施PPP项目中的关键性风险识别与度量

Key Risks Identification and Measurement of Traffic Infrastructure on PPP Project

为确定PPP模式下交通基础设施关键性风险排序结果,介绍了PPP模式在我国发展的优势以及遇到的障碍,通过文献梳理与总结,识别出35个PPP模式下交通基础设施项目风险,组织了针对PPP模式研究领域专家学者的问卷调查,对PPP项目风险进行了风险发生概率、风险损失大小、风险发生后处理效率、类似风险管理经验的数值量化,并基于改进灰色关联分析模型对PPP项目进行关键性风险识别与风险度量,指出参与方在实际管理中应重点关注的风险并提出相应对策。

In order to determine the rankings of key risk of traffic infrastructure on PPP model, the advantages of PPP model and the obstacles encountered in China are introduced at first. Thirty-five traffic infrastructure project risks on PPP model are identified through literature review and summarization, the risk probability, risk losses, risk management efficiency, similar risk management experience are measured by numerical quantification, in the light of the questionnaire survey completed by experts and scholars who researched in PPP model. Then based on the improved grey relational analysis model, identification and measurement of PPP project risks are concluded. Finally, it points out the critical risks in actual management which paticipants should focus on and put forward the corresponding suggestions.