我国中部六省CO_2排放动态变化趋势

Dynamic Changes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Six Provinces of Central China

探讨区域CO2排放的长期变化趋势对制订碳减排政策和实现减排目标具有重要意义，为此，根据IPCC指南，测算了2000--2012年我国中部六省（安徽省、山西省、河南省、湖北省、湖南省和江西省）的CO2排放量及其排放强度；借助DEA（dataenvelopment analysis）-Malmquist指数模型，从CO2排放量、生产总值、资本存量、能源消费总量和劳动力5个方面，对中部六省的动态CO：排放效率进行了全要素分析．结果表明：①中部六省的CO2排放总量由2000年的6．74×10^8t升至2012年的20．24×10^8t，年均增长1．12×10^8t．②中部六省CO2排放强度由2000年的3．41降至2012年的1．74，年均下降5．5％．受地区能源产业结构的影响，山西省CO2排放强度峰值高达11．40，减排压力与其余五省相比更为艰巨．③动态CO2排放效率均值为1．054，呈稳步提升趋势，技术效率进步指数年均值为1．051（〉1），对CO2排放效率提升起到了拉动作用，而技术效率变动指数和规模效率指数的年均值均为0．999（〈1），拉低了中部六省的CO2排放效率．研究显示，中部六省CO2排放量增速虽呈逐年下降趋势，但增长态势在短期内仍无法改变．CO2排放与地区所处经济发展阶段关系密切，其排放效率的提升主要依靠技术水平的进步、低碳管理方法的推广和规模经济的发展．

It is important to investigate the long-term trends of regional CO2 emissions for formulating reduction policies and achieving carbon emission goals. In the case of six provinces of Central China, the amount and density of CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2012 were estimated based on IPCC guidelines in Anhui, Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The dynamic efficiency of CO2 emissions was also measured in the central region by analyzing CO2 emissions, GDP, capital stock, total energy consumption and labor via the establishment of a data envelopment analysis （DEA） -Malmquist index model. The results showed that： 1 ） From 2000 to 2012, CO2 emissions of the six provinces in the central region increased from 6. 74 x lOs t to 20.24 × l0^8 t, with an annual growth of 1.12 × l0^8 t per year. 2） CO2 intensities of the six provinces fell from 3.41 to 1.74 by an annual rate of 5.5%, with CO2 emissions intensity appearing to drop year by year. However, because of the specific industrial structure of the regional energy, the peak CO2 intensity in Shanxi Province was up to 11.40 ; that province had more difficulty to reduce COs emission than the other five provinces. 3） The averagedynamic efficiency of CO2 emission per year was 1. 054, which showed a tendency of increasing year after year. The annual average of technological change was 1. 051 （ 〉 1 ） , which had a pulling role in the increase of efficiency of CO2 emissions. However, the annual average of technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change both were 0. 999 （ 〈 1 ） , which drove down the CO2 efficiency of the six provinces of Central China. The growth rate of CO2 emissions in the six provinces decreased year by year, but the growth trend was not changed in the short term because CO2 emissions are closely correlated with the stage of economic development. The promotion of the efficiency of CO2 emissions mainly depends on the progress of technology, the popularization of low-carbon management and the development of economies of scale.