工业经济新常态愿景下的分化与突破——2015年工业经济运行特征与2016年展望

The Differentiation and Breakthrough under the Vision of China's New Normal in Industrial Economy——The Industrial Economic Operation Characteristics in 2015 and Outlook for 2016

"十二五"期间中国工业经济呈现逐年下滑态势,特别是2015年作为"十二五"的收官之年,工业经济增速更是创出自1992年以来的最低。工业经济呈现出的加速下滑态势表明我国工业经济已经从"旧常态"进入到"新常态"的判断还为时过早,稳定均衡的工业经济"新常态"现在还只是一个愿景。而工业经济产业结构和地区分化是工业增长结构不断优化、动力正在转换的一种表现。《中国制造2025》、"互联网+"战略是我国工业战略布局的突破口,这也是2015年中国工业经济发展的最大亮点。综合判断,2016年规模以上工业增加值将在5.5%左右,月度波动区间位于4.5%到6%之间,工业经济还处于持续探底阶段。2016年,只有真正实现供给侧结构性改革的突破,才能逐步形成实施工业强国战略的有效机制,从而加快推进工业增长动力转换,尽早实现工业经济增长的筑底成功。

During the period of ＂the twelfth five-year＂plan, China＇s industrial economic growth has presented a downward trend year by year, especially in 2015 which is the final year of ＂the twelfth five-year＂, the industrial economic growth has edged down to the lowest point since 1992. The accelerating downward trend of industrial economic growth shows that it would he too early to interpret that China＇s industrial economy has entered to the new normal, and the ＂new normal＂ in industrial economy characterized by stable and balanced is only a vision now. However, the industrial structure and regional differentiation in industrial economy are the performances which show that the industrial growth structure is continuously optimizing and the power is converting. The ＂Made in China 2025＂ strategy and Interuet plus initiative are the sally ports of China＇s industrial strategy layout, and as well as the biggest highlights of the industrial economic development in 2016. In our synthetical judgement, the growth rate of added value of industries above a designated scale in 2016 would be around 5.5%, and the monthly fluctuation range would be between 4.5% and 6%, and the industrial economy would be still in the last stage of dip. In 2016, only if the breakthrough in supply-side structural reforms really realize, can the the effective mechanism of implementing the strategy of the powerful industrial country gradually form, so as to accelerate the industrial growth power transformation and realize the bottoming success of industrial economic growth as soon as possible.