基于省级数据的电力发展水平动态综合评价方法

Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Power Industry Development Level Based on Provincial Data

电力发展水平的量化综合评价对准确认识地区电力发展的特点和趋势具有重要意义。对电力发展水平的评价指标体系、动态综合评价方法和评价结果分析进行研究。建立电力发展水平评价的三级指标体系,从经济能源协调度、发电水平、用电水平、供电水平和电力发展潜力5个方面刻画地区电力发展水平。提出考虑主观权重约束的改进投影寻踪方法建立静态评价模型,将模糊专家评价和权数非独裁条件以约束形式嵌入投影寻踪模型,实现主观专家意见和客观数据信息的结合;利用时序信息熵确定时序加权向量,将各时间断面的静态评价模型集结,建立电力发展水平动态综合评价模型。以1994至2013年全国30个省、市、自治区的数据为样本,通过横向、纵向对比二级指标评价值和电力发展水平综合评价值,分析中国电力工业发展的地区差异、特点及潜力。

The comprehensive quantitative evaluation of power industry development level is of important significance for understanding developing characteristics and potential of local power industry. A tri-grade evaluation index system is established,describing local power industry development level from five aspects including the coordination degree between power industry and economy / energy,power generation,power consumption,power supply and developing potential. An improved projection pursuit method considering weighting constraints is proposed to establish the static evaluation model. By combining fuzzy expert evaluation and weights nondictatorship condition with projection pursuit model,the blend of subjective evaluation and objective evaluation can be realized. By aggregating the static evaluation model at each time section according to time ordered weighting vector,which is calculated by time ordered information entropy,the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of power industry development level is established. Taking provincial data of China from 1994 to 2013 as samples,through the synchronic and diachronic comparisons of evaluation results,the difference,characteristics and potential of local power industry development in China is analyzed.