基于DID模型的ITS对北京交通拥堵改善的研究:评价期的视角

Research on the Improvement of Traffic Congestion in Beijing By ITS Based on DID Model:Perspective of evaluation period

采用双重差分模型,基于智能交通系统(ITS)效用发挥滞后时间为3年,选择2010年和2014年作为评价时点对ITS实施效果和北京交通拥堵之间的相关性进行分析.DID模型计量分析的最终结果显示,ITS效果的发挥明显改善了北京交通拥堵问题.为了验证评价结果的可信度,通过改变评价时点这一参数对评价结果进行稳健性检验,结果仍显示ITS效应发挥对北京交通拥堵改善有很大的促进作用.

Based on the ITS utility to play lag time is 3 years,this paper use difference-indifference model and chose 2010 and 2014 as the evaluation time to analyze the correlation between the effect of ITS implementation and the traffic congestion in Beijing.The final results of DID model measurement analysis shows that the effect of ITS has improved significantly the traffic congestion in Beijing.In order to prove the credibility of evaluation result,this paper starts the robustness test by changing the parameters of the evaluation time.And finally the result still shows that the ITS effect of traffic congestion in Beijing plays a great role in promoting the improvement.