中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择--基于空间溢出效应的视角

China's Economic Policy Choices for Governing Smog Pollution Based on Spatial Spillover Effects

本文基于1998—2012年中国省域PM2.5浓度数据,采用动态空间面板模型和系统广义矩估计方法,在同时考虑雾霾污染的时间滞后效应、空间滞后效应和时空滞后效应的条件下,对影响雾霾污染的关键因素进行了经验识别和相应的治霾政策讨论。结果表明:中国省域雾霾污染呈现明显的空间溢出效应和高排放俱乐部集聚特征;无论采用官方的人均GDP还是卫星监测的稳定灯光亮度指标,雾霾污染与经济增长均存在显著的U形曲线关系,大部分东部省份处于雾霾污染随经济增长水平提高而加剧的阶段;二产畸高的产业结构、以煤为主的能源结构、人口的快速集聚及公路交通运输强度的提升共同促使雾霾污染加剧,而研发强度和能源效率的提高并未发挥出应有的减霾效果,因此,促增因素没有得到有效抑制、促降因素没有得到有效发挥,是导致中国雾霾污染频发的根本原因;雾霾污染在时间单维度、空间单维度和时空双维度上分别表现出雪球效应、泄漏效应和警示效应,因而治霾政策必须坚持常抓不懈、联防联控和惩一儆百的实施策略。

Using PM2.5 concentrations data at China＇s provincial level over 1998--2012, we adopt dynamic spatial panel model and SGMM to empirically identify the key determinants of smog pollution and discuss the corresponding smog-governing policies. The results indicate that China＇s smog pollution presents an obvious spatial spillover effect and high-emission ＂club＂ agglomeration. There is a significant U-shape curve relationship between smog pollution and economic growth, and smog pollution is worsening with economic growth in most eastern provinces. Due to high-proportion secondary industry, coal- dominated energy structure, rapid population agglomeration, and increasing highway traffic intensity, China＇s smog pollution is increasingly heavy, while the improvement of R＆D intensity and energy efficiency do not play an expectant role in mitigating smog pollution. Therefore, the underlying cause of heavy smog pollution is that its promotion factors are not effectively restrained while its mitigation factors are not significantly performed. China＇s smog pollution presents the characteristics of the snowball effect, leakage effect, and warning effect. Hence, smog-governing policy should be implemented based on the strategies of unswerving effort, regional joint prevention and control, and punishing one to warn others.