洞庭湖区热量资源方面的灾害性天气分析

Analysis of Disastrous Weather Related to Heat Resources in Dongting Lake District

采用洞庭湖区12个气象观测站1971～2013年常规气象资料，综合分析了影响洞庭湖区水稻生长热量资源方面的灾害性天气（倒春寒、5月低温、寒露风和高温热害）。结果表明，洞庭湖区倒春寒、5月低温、寒露风均呈减少趋势，高温热害年份站点数呈增加趋势；连续两旬出现倒春寒的年概率为2．3％，连续2年未出现寒露风的概率仅为2．4％；倒春寒年分布呈现由南向北“V”字型递增的趋势，5月低温年分布和次数分布均呈现西南多东北少的趋势，寒露风年分布和次数分布均呈现山区多、湖区少的趋势；山区出现高温热害的年数较多，海拔越高出现的机率越大；各类灾害性热量资源天气的发生有其特定的天气形势。

Based on conventional meteorological data during 1971-2013 from 12 meteorological stations in Dongting Lake district, disastrous weather （cold spell in later spring, low temperature in May, cold dew wind, and high temperature damage） influencing heat resources for rice growth in Dongting Lake district were analyzed.The results showed that in Dongting Lake district, the quantity of stations suffering cold spell in later spring, low temperature in May, and cold dew wind tended to decrease, while the number of stations suffering high temperature dam-age showed an increasing trend from 1971 to 2013.The probability of years with cold spell in later spring appearing in continuous two periods of ten days was 2.3%, while the probability of cold dew wind not appearing in continuous two years was only 2.4%;the number of years with cold spell in later spring tended to increase from the south to the north in the shape of“V”;the number of years and frequency of low tempera-ture in May decreased from the southwest to the northeast;the number of years and frequency of cold dew wind were more in mountainous areas and less in the lake region;there were more years with high temperature damage in mountainous areas, and the probability was high at high al-titudes; various types of disastrous weather related to heat resources had specific weather situations.