泰山降水特征和变化趋势分析

Analysis of Characteristics and Changing Trends of Precipitation in Mount Tai

利用国家气象局泰山站1954～2011年的降水观测资料，采用最小二乘、Mann－Kendall等方法分析了近58年来泰山年降水量变化特征，并对泰山降水趋势进行了分析。结果表明，近58年来泰山年降水量较多，降水1～7月呈现逐月增加趋势，8～12月为逐月降低。近58年来泰山年降水量在振荡波动中呈略减少趋势，递减速率为21．522 mm／10 a，其中夏季减少最为明显，递减率可达19．612 mm／10 a，仅春季呈现增加趋势，增加率为5．950 mm／10 a。泰山年降水量均存在明显的突变现象。1954～2011年泰山年降水量正常年份仅15年，其余年份为异常年份，旱年多于涝年。

Based on the data of precipitation from Mount Tai station of National Weather Bureau during 1954-2011, the changing character-istics of precipitation in Mount Tai over the past 58 years were analyzed by using least square method, Mann-Kendall test and so on, and the changing trend of precipitation in Mount Tai were analyzed.The results showed that annual rainfall in Mount Tai was large over the past 58 years, and precipitation showed an increasing trend from January to July but a decreasing trend from August to December.From 1954 to 2011, annual precipitation in Mount Tai tended to decline, decreasing by 21.522 mm/10 a.Precipitation in summer reduced most obviously, drop-ping by 19.612 mm/10 a.Only precipitation in spring showed an increasing trend, rising by 5.95 mm/10 a.There were obvious sudden changes in annual precipitation in Mount Tai.During 1954-2011, annual precipitation in Mount Tai was normal in 15 years but abnormal in other years.Drought years were more than water logging years.