我国苹果种植投入产出波动特征及影响因素实证研究

Empirical Study on Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Input-Output of Apple Planting in China

根据1991～2014年我国苹果种植投入和产出的年度数据，在对苹果种植投入产出波动特征进行描述性分析的基础上，选取单位面积产量、农药费、劳动力用工数量、肥料费等4个变量对苹果种植投入产出影响因素进行协整分析。结果表明：农药费和劳动力用工数量能够增加苹果产量，肥料费则会抑制苹果产量的增长。对此，提出了建立苹果产业投入保障机制，加强劳动力技能培训，适当加强农业生产资料的管理和使用等对策建议。

According to the annual data of input-output of apple planting in China from 1991 to 2014,the fluctuation characteristics of input-out-put of apple planting in China were analyzed,and then the influences of per unit area yield,pesticide cost,and quantity of labour force and fertiliz-er cost on input-output of apple planting were analyzed.The result showed that pesticide cost,quantity of labour force could enhance apple yield, but fertilizer cost would suppress the growth of apple yield.Finally,corresponding suggestions were proposed,such as establishing a safeguard mechanism for apple industry,strengthening training of labor skills,and appropriately reinforcing the management and use of agricultural produc-tion data.