哈长城市群经济格局时空演化特征

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Economic Pattern in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration

在构建综合测度评价指标体系基础上,采用TOPSIS、区域不平衡测度及ESDA分析方法对2000—2014年哈长城市群内8个地级市、49个县域经济发展水平进行综合评价,并对各地区经济格局的时空演化进行实证研究。结果表明:2000—2014年哈长城市群整体经济呈现稳步发展势头;同类地区在空间上集聚,但地区间差距逐渐拉大,经济格局存在"俱乐部趋同"现象;不同时期、不同发展水平地区热点、冷点区域转移概率与转移方向无较明显"轨迹";局部空间自相关显著,各区域单元的空间经济格局变动较大,主导轴线和核心城市引擎作用尚不足,哈长城市群在东北地区的优势地位并不突出,短期内对引领东北地区经济发展的能力还较弱。

In this paper, TOPSIS（technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution） , regional imbalance measure and ESDA（exploratory spatial data analysis） analysis method were used to evaluate the economic development level of the 8 cities and 49 counties in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration since 2000 and explore the spatial-temporal evolution of economic pattern in this area based on the establishment of measure indicator system for economic development. The results showed that the change of economic development level in Harbin-Chang- chun urban agglomeration has rendered a steady momentum of growth in recent 10 years; The same kind of region is collecting in space, but the economic gap are gradually widened. At the same time, economic development level ex-ists “club convergence” phenomenon. The transition probability and transfer direction have no obvious “ trajectory”in hot and cold spot area; Local spatial autocorrelation and the change of spatial pattern is marked, and the enginefunction of leading axis and core city are inadequate. It is also reveals that the undominant position of Harbin- Changchun urban agglomeration can not guide the economic development in the northeast China in a short time.