淘汰落后产能的产业转型政策在典型工业行业的节能效果分析

Assessment of Energy Conservation from Industrial Transformation Through Eliminating Backward Production Capacities in China

利用我国2011—2015年典型产业淘汰落后产能数据,研究了通过淘汰落后产能实现产业结构减排的净能源节约量,评价了不同行业在节能中发挥的作用,分析了全国范围内典型产业转型能源节约量的动态变化情况。估算结果表明:2011—2015年淘汰落后产能的年净能源节约量分别为1357.77万、1245.70万、1067.32万、981.42万和483.70万tce,期间累计净能源节约预期达到5135.91万tce;电力、水泥、造纸、炼铁、焦炭、炼钢和铁合金7个行业部门2011—2015年累计淘汰落后产能净能源节约量之和占到20个行业部门净能源节约量的90%;河北省、山东省和山西省淘汰落后产能能源节约量最为突出,占全部能源节约量的近28%。

From 2011 to 2015, several policies have been taken in China to promote industrial transformation through phase-out of backward production facilities. This paper evaluated effects of the phase-out of backward production facilities on net energy savings during the 12th Five Year Plan （2011- 2015）, assessed the contributions of different industrial sectors to the net energy savings, and analyzed the regional distribution of the net energy savings in China. The main results showed that the annual net energy savings from 2011 to 2015 were estimated to be 13 5 7.77 × 10^4, 1245.70× 10^4, 1067.32× 10^4, 981.42× 10^4, and 483.70 × 10^4 tce, respectively. The totalcumulative net energy savings were 5135.91 × 10^4 tce. The industrial sectors including electricity, cement, pulp ＆ paper, iron-making, coke, steel-making and ferroalloy contributed 9 0 % of the total net energy savings. The regional distribution of net energy savings was concentrated on 3 provinces including Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi provinces, taking 2 8 % to the total during 2011-2015.