区域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变研究——以巢湖流域为例

STUDY ON THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE:TAKING THE CHAOHU BASIN AS A CASE

提高自然灾害恢复力是应对气候变化和自然灾害的重要途径之一。在总结自然灾害恢复力研究的基础上,全面考虑自然、社会、经济、技术、管理等5个维度对其的影响,构建巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,并基于ANP分析方法求得非独立指标间的权重,评价巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力,进而分析2000-2010年之间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力时空演变规律,以期为提高巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力水平提供有价值的参考。研究结果表明,2000-2010年巢湖流域大部分地区洪涝灾害恢复力指数都在增长,但增长速率存在不同地区、不同维度上的明显差异;从流域平均水平来看,10 a间巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力指数在增长,其中自然维的指数是下降的,其他维度的指数为增长,并且对巢湖流域洪涝灾害恢复力增长正向影响最大的是经济维影响因子,而自然维的影响因子对恢复力增长起到了负向作用;2000-2010年巢湖流域洪涝灾害各等级恢复力分布格局变化不大,但其他地区与合肥市辖区恢复力的差距在拉大。

Improving natural disaster resilience is one of the important methods for coping with climate change and natural disasters. On the basis of summarizing the study of natural disaster resilience, an index system for evaluating flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin was constructed with a full consideration of the five dimensions（i.e., nature, society,economy, technology, and management） which have a great influence on flood disaster resilience. The weights of the dependent indexes were obtained by using analytic network process（ANP） analysis. Subsequently, the flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin was evaluated. At last, the spatiotemporal evolution of flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin during 2000-2010 was analyzed to provide valuable reference for improving the level of flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin. The results indicated that the flood disaster resilience index in most part of the Chaohu Basin was increasing from 2000 to 2010, but there were obvious differences in the growth rate of different regions and different dimensions. From the point of view of the average level of the basin, flood disaster resilience index of the Chaohu Basin has been in growth during the 10 years, flood disaster resilience index of the natural dimension was declining while flood disaster resilience index of other dimensions were increasing, and the most positive impact on flood disaster resilience of the Chaohu Basin was the economic factor, the influencing factor of the natural dimension played a negative role in the growth of flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin. The distribution patterns of various grades of the flood disaster resilience in the Chaohu Basin had little change from 2000 to 2010, but the gap of flood disaster resilience between Hefei Municipal District and other part in the Chaohu Basin became obviously.