“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家气候变化特征

Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Silk Road Economic Belt

基于美国国家气候中心发布的全球气象站点日数据,利用克里金插值、线性趋势法、累计距平曲线法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和多尺度区域统计等方法,系统阐述了"丝绸之路经济带"主要国家1980-2014年气温和降水的变化趋势和空间分布特征。结果表明,研究区近35年以0.4℃/10a的速率呈现明显升温态势,30.1%的区域升温显著,0.03%的区域降温显著。各国普遍在20世纪末进入偏暖阶段。降水以减少为主,却仅有0.19%的区域减少显著,零星分布于沙特阿拉伯和中国的西部。南亚1991年后进入降水偏多阶段,其余地区多在1999年后进入降水偏少阶段。该成果能够为相关国家在"一带一路"战略的统领下解决和应对气候变化问题提供科学依据和有益参考。

Under the background of global warming,the influence of climate change cannot be ignored during the process of the Belt and Road Initiative. Here,we characterized the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in the countries within the Silk Road Economic Belt and systematically analyzed spatiotemporal changes over the last 35 years. We used daily observations of meteorological stations provided by National Climatic Data Center in America and employed Kriging interpolation,linear trend methods,accumulative anomaly curve,Mann-Kendall tests,and spatial statistics at regional,country and pixel scales. The results show that the study area had a warming of 0.4℃/10 a from 1980 to 2014. Most countries entered a warmer phase at the end of 20 th century. Further,of the whole study area,30.1% has warmed and only about 0.03% has experienced a drop in temperature. Precipitation has tended to decrease,but only 0.19% of the study area has a significant downward trend in precipitation. There were also some areas with a significant upward trend in precipitation,such as Saudi Arabia,southwestern Iran,western Bulgaria,northwestern Ukraine,northern Pakistan,northern India,Nepal,Laos,western China and central Russia. South Asia has had increasing precipitation since 1991,but all other areas have undergone precipitation decline since 1999. Climate change will result in pros and cons for countries in the study area. This study provides a scientific base and conducive reference for the adaption of relevant countries to climate change during development of the Belt and Road Initiative.