心胸外科手术风险预测模型的现状与进展

Advancements of risk modeling for cardiothoracic surgery

手术风险预测模型是通过循证医学方法，回访临床数据库的大宗病例，根据患者围手术期信息构建的统计学模型。其一方面可在术前预先为患者提供个体化的手术风险评估，判断术后不良事件的发生率，指导临床决策；另一方面可通过风险校正，为医疗质量评估设定客观标准，在不同人群中比较手术方法的疗效。近年，胸心外科领域的手术风险预测模型发展迅速，本文通过复习有关文献，初步探讨了该类模型的应用价值和发展前景。

Surgical risk models are statistical models established by reviewing large-volume surgical databases and using patients＇ perioperative data on evidenced based principles. Typically, surgical risk models are able to provide individualized risk information preoperatively, including postoperative morbidity and mortality, thus facilitating clinical decisions. On the oth- er hand, with risk adjustment, the models set benchmarks for quality assessment, which enables relatively objective compari- sons of surgical approaches within different cohorts. As in recent years risk models for cardiothoracic surgery have been fast de- veloping, this paper goes through some literature to discuss over the application and prospect of these models.