新型城镇化与耕地集约利用协调发展时空演变研究--以广东省为例

Study on the temporal and spatial evolution of coordinated development between new urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land: A case study of Guangdong Province

本文通过构建新型城镇化与耕地集约利用协调发展评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS、协调发展、重心迁移等模型,以广东省为实证,揭示两者间协调发展时空演变规律。结果表明:新型城镇化与耕地集约利用呈较强正相关,本质上属互促共进关系,但受发展阶段和地区差异影响,两者间仍存在矛盾;户籍城镇化率是协调发展等级优化的重要影响因素,后者随前者同向变化;经济发展较好的地区协调发展等级较高,协调发展类型对经济实力依赖较小,主要受产业结构、耕地资源禀赋等影响;协调发展度重心大体向创新驱动、产业升级、城乡统筹发展的地理空间转移;促进协调发展应结合地区特色及所处协调阶段,采取差异化创新驱动发展策略,注重加大农业机械投入、深化户籍制度改革和加速区域一体化发展。

Taking Guangdong Province as an example and applying the entropy-weight TOPSIS, coordinated development, and gravity models, this paper examined the temporal and spatial evolution of coordinated development between new urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land. Results indicated that new urbanization and intensive use of arable land had an essential mutual promoting relationship with strong positive correlation. However, there exists a conlfict between them and the conlfict varies with different development stages and regions. The registered household urbanization rate was an important positive factor to the optimization of coordinated development level. Coordinated development was higher in developed regions, while its type rarely relied on economic power, rather it was affected by the industrial structure and the cultivated land resource endowment. The coordinated development focus has been moving towards technical innovation, upgraded industry, and integration of urban and rural areas. To promote coordinated development, this paper provides the following suggestions： to adopt the differentiated innovation-driven development strategy based on regional features and coordinated development stage, to increase investment in agricultural machinery and deepen the reform of household registration system, and to accelerate the development of regional integration.