湖北省农户家庭耕地经营规模情景分析——基于系统动力学原理的实证研究

Simulation of the operation scale of household farmland in Hubei Province: An empirical study based on system dynamics

本文利用系统动力学原理,对家庭耕地经营规模进行了建模和仿真分析。通过分析粮食供求、人口状况、耕地面积和政策调节因素的因果反馈关系,构建湖北省家庭耕地经营规模系统动力学模型并进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明:1)系统对湖北省进行的初始预测表明,未来省内能够完全满足粮食自给自足,家庭经营面积也不断扩大,逐步实现规模经营;2)人口政策的开放短期内对湖北省粮食安全不会产生威胁。提高耕地安全基线,加大单位面积耕地资金投入和提高粮食种植比例都能够对粮食产量进行一定调节;3)上调耕地安全基线,在一定程度上能够快速调节粮食供给,保障粮食安全,但这种形式的调节不利于农业的可持续发展;4)人口自然增长率上升,农村人口总量增加,会减慢家庭耕地经营规模的扩大,城镇化是实现规模经营的关键。

Based on the system dynamics theory and incorporating the grain supply and demand, population, and the causality relationship between the cultivated area for grain and the grain policy adjustment, this paper built a simulation model to analyze the household farmland management scales in Hubei Province. Results show that： 1） the initial projection for Hubei Province shows that Hubei can completely meet the grain self-sufficiency in the future, expand household farmland scales, and gradually realize the scale operations; 2） the open-door population policy will not impose any threats to grain security in the short run and improving cultivated land security baseline, increasing investment per unit of the arable land, and raising the grain planting proportion can help to adjust grain production; 3） although improving cultivated land security baseline has a better adjustment to the grain supply to a certain extent, this form of regulation is not sustainable for agricultural development in the long run; and 4） the rising of natural population growth rate will increase rural population and slow down the expansion of scale operation in grain production. Therefore, the urbanization is the key to the realization of scale operation for grain production in Hubei Province.