我国城乡居民食用植物油消费影响因素的比较分析

Comparative analysis of the influencing factors of vegetable oil consumption by urban and rural residents in China

基于宏观经济学相关理论,利用我国城乡居民食用植物油消费数据,运用协整方程和误差修正模型,分析我国城乡居民食用植物油消费的长期及短期影响因素,探讨各影响因素对城乡居民食用植物油消费的作用机制。结果表明,1981-2012年城镇和农村居民食用植物油人均消费量分别由4.8 kg和1.9 kg增长到9.1 kg和6.9 kg,城乡居民食用植物油消费与人均收入水平存在明显的相关性。其中,人均收入水平对城乡居民食用植物油人均消费量的短期影响程度最大,且农村居民的需求收入弹性大于城镇居民;食用植物油价格对城乡居民消费的影响效应存在显著差异;健康信息还未对城乡居民食用植物油消费产生负向影响;消费习惯对城乡居民食用植物油消费均产生正向影响,但城镇居民的消费惯性大于农村居民。城镇居民对食用植物油人均消费短期变动偏离长期均衡关系的调节力度较强;从长期来看,促进农村食用植物油消费市场发展必须依靠增加农村居民的收入水平来实现。

Based on macroeconomics theories and the consumption data of vegetable oil by both urban and rural residents, and applying the co-integration equation and the ECM model, this paper empirically examined the long and short term inlfuencing factors and the mechanism of the consumption of vegetable oil by both urban and rural residents in China. Results show that： 1） from 1981-2012, per capita consumption of vegetable oil increased from 4.8 kg to 9.1 kg for urban residents and from 1.9 kg to 6.9 kg for rural residents; 2） there was a positive correlation between vegetable oil consumption and per capita income, with the largest impacts on the consumption of vegetable oil by income in the short run and the income elasticity of demand of rural residents is bigger than that of urban residents; 3） vegetable oil price has signiifcant different inlfuences on rural and urban residents, while the health information does not have any significant negative influences; and 4） consumption habits have positive influences on consumption for both urban and rural residents with a greater consumption propensity for urban residents than for rural residents. In addition, the strength of adjustment of urban residents to the short term change of vegetable oil consumption deviating from the long-term equilibrium is stronger. In the long run, it must rely on increasing the income level of rural residents to promote the development of rural vegetable oil consumer market.