“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

Discuss the impact and tendency of the Universal Two-child Policy on China's birth rate fluctuation

从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。

From the selective two-child policy to the universal two-child policy, the government keeps adjusting policies to meet the social demand according to China＇ s current population situation. Although it is possible to solve some social problems caused by the family planning policy for a long time, including labor shortage and ＇ growing old before getting wealth＇, long-term effects of population policy adjustment remain to be verified. Therefore, this paper estimates the impact on China＇ s birth rate and tendency of it under the universal two-child policy, and analyzes how the universal two-child policy affects the growth rate and the population age structure through gray forecasting model and Leslie model. Then, the tendency of the birth rate, population size and population structure from 2016 to 2050 is predicted and results show that the universal two-child policy can not reverse the imbalance between supply and demand of the labor, and improve the aging population even though this policy can optimize the population structure. To avoid falling into the trap of low fertility population, restrain the tendency of rapid development of aging population moderately, realize the comprehensive and coordinated development of population and social economy, the family planning policy must be improved. In the short term, we should take supporting measures to implement the universal two-child policy fully and deal with the aging tendency positively. In the long term, we should build the effective mechanism of the balanced development of the natural population growth.