中国“人口流动-经济增长收敛谜题”--基于新古典内生经济增长模型的分析与检验

‘Population migration-economic growth convergence puzzle'in China:based on analysis and testing of neoclassical endogenous economic growth model

大规模人口从中西部向东部发达地区流动必将对区域经济产生重要影响。人口流动是否促进区域经济增长,区域经济增长是发散还是收敛对促进区域经济协调发展具有重要的现实意义。本文从人均产出出发,以Barro and Sala-i-Martin国际人口迁移模型为理论基础,用数理分析方法推演出携带人力资本的人口流动新古典内生经济增长收敛机制。在稳态邻域内,发达地区经济增长收敛速度加快,同时欠发达地区经济增长收敛速度减慢,最终导致区域经济相对发散。随后,本文借鉴DR模型建立动态面板数据模型,该模型既能预测内生经济增长发散性,又可以预测新古典经济增长收敛性。通过利用2005—2014年中国29个省份面板数据,采用系统GMM方法对区域经济增长收敛性进行实证检验。实证结果显示:1人口流动促进了区域经济增长;2以2008年为时间节点,西部大开发政策的实施加速了西部地区经济增长;3中国区域经济具有新古典经济增长收敛机制和内生经济增长收敛机制。这意味着理论模型和实证检验相矛盾,从而产生"人口流动-经济增长收敛谜题"。"收敛谜题"产生的原因可能有政策效应、追赶效应、人力资本效应、收入转移效应和干中学效应。"收敛谜题"告诉我们,要使区域经济协调发展,从根本上解决区域差距扩大的矛盾,发挥新古典经济收敛机制和内生经济收敛机制的作用,就必须提高国民整体人力资本水平、解决好就业市场体制问题和流动人口福利待遇问题。

Large-scale population migration from the middle and the western regions to eastern developed region could have an important impact on regional economy. Does population movement promote the regional economic growth？ Is regional economic growth divergent or convergent？ It was of great significance to promote the coordinated development of regional economy. Based on the international migration model of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, the convergence mechanism between neoclassical endogenous economic growth and human capital carried by population migration was deduced by mathematical analysis method from the perspective of per capita output. Within the steady-state neighborhood, the economic growth convergence speed of developed regions could be faster while the convergence speed of underdeveloped areas is slower. It leads to the relative divergence of regional economic growth. Afterwards, using DR model, the dynamic panel data model is established. DR model could predict the endogenous economic growth divergence and the neoclassical economic growth convergence. This paper empirically tested the effect of regional economic growth convergence by selecting panel data of 29 provinces of China from 2005 to 2014 and adopting system GMM testing method. The empirical results showed that the population movement promoted the regional economic growth; comparing the data before and after 2008, the economic growth was accelerated in the western region due to the implementation of Western Development Program; there are neoclassical growth convergence mechanisms and endogenous growth convergence mechanism separately in inter-region of China. Thus produced the ＇ population migration-economic growth convergence puzzle＇ in which theoretical model and empirical test are found conflicting to each other. ＇ Convergence puzzle＇ was caused by policy effect, catch-up effect, the effect of human capital, income transfers effect and learning by doing effect. ＇ Convergence puzzle＇ reveals that in order to make coordination of regional economic development and play the role of neoclassical economic convergence mechanism and the endogenous economic convergence mechanism, and fundamentally solve the problem of widening regional economic gap, we must improve the level of national overall human capital, solve the problem of market-oriented employment system and improve benefits for migrant workers.