人口年龄结构、人口迁移与东北经济增长

Age structure,population migration and economic growth in northeast China

近些年来,中国东北地区经济增速的迅速下滑引发了广泛关注,与此同时,东北地区的人口老龄化与人口流失局面也在加速发展,为探究二者间的联系,本文在梳理文献的基础上,选择从人口年龄结构和人口迁移的视角切入,利用扩展的索洛模型推导了各变量与人均资本、人均产出间的关系。并通过对地级市面板数据的一阶系统广义矩估计研究了人口年龄结构,人口迁移等变量对东北经济增长的影响及经济增长对人口迁移的反作用,利用交叉项分析探讨了人口因素对东北不同经济发展水平地区的差异化影响。实证发现:1劳动年龄人口占比与东北经济增长成正相关,而人口老龄化与人口净迁出均对东北经济增长产生了不利影响;2相较于一般性的人口流动,户籍人口的净迁出对经济增长的不利影响更突出;3人口年龄结构与人口迁移对发达地区和落后地区产生的影响会有所差异;4东北经济增长存在惯性且符合区域增长收敛理论;5投资率与劳动力参与率这两个变量则未能通过显著性检验。6经济增长也对人口迁移产生了一定的反作用。在此基础上,本文针对性地提出了一些建议:1东北地区应及时科学综合地应对人口老龄化,开发老龄人力资源,调整人口政策,平衡地区间养老压力,发展老龄产业;2东北地区应控制人口流失局面,放宽户籍限制,加快国企改革,形成合理的产业结构与制度环境,留住人才。

In recent years, economic growth in northeast China has dropped rapidly, which caused widespread concerns. Meanwhile, population aging and population loss are also accelerating. Based on literature review, the perspective of age structure and population migration is chosen. The relationship between per capita capital, per capita output and every other variable is derived from the extended Solow model. Using the method of one-step system GMM, this paper estimates the impact of age structure, population migration on economic growth and the impact of economic growth on population migration as well in northeast area based on prefecture-level panel data. Then using the cross term, this paper analyzes the differential effects of demographic factors on areas with different levels of economic development in northeast China. The empirical findings show that：①there is a positive correlation between proportion of working-age population and economic growth in northeast area, however, population aging and net outflow of population have a negative impact on the economic growth in northeast area;②compared to the general population mobility, net out-migration with the changing of ＇hukou＇ will exert lager negative effects on eeonomie growth; ③age structure and population migration have different effects on developed area and developing area; ④economie growth in northeast area has inertia, which conforms to the theory of regional growth convergence; ⑤investment rate and labor force participation rate fail to pass the significance test;⑥economic growth also exerts some impact on population migration. Therefore, some targeted policy suggestions are put forward： ① northeast area should cope with population aging timely, scientifically and comprehensively, develop aging human resource, adjust population policy, and balance the regional pressure to provide for the aged and promote aging industry. ②Northeast area should control the situation of population loss, relax ＇hukou＇ restrictions, speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises and form rational industrial structure and institutional environment to retain talent.