房地产市场促进城镇化建设的作用机理与协调发展研究

Mechanism and coordinated development of real estate market promoting the construction of urbanization

新型城镇化建设是中共十八大提出的重要发展目标,其建设水平直接关乎我国经济发展方式转变路径,房地产市场作为国民经济运行的重要组成部分,其市场化程度对于城镇化建设至关重要,因此,如何实现房地产市场与城镇化建设的同步和协调发展是当前中国经济社会发展亟需解决的现实问题。本文基于理论模型和经验分析,从系统分析入手,通过综合指标建立"房地产市场—城镇化建设水平"系统(系统Ⅰ:房地产市场;系统Ⅱ:城镇化建设水平),运用熵值法进行评价指标权值的求取,进而运用耦合协调度模型,重点分析不同等级城市两个系统的运行成效、耦合阶段和协调趋势,以期强化政策制定的针对性和现实性。研究表明:1房地产销售价格、预期与信贷和人口流动是房地产市场作用于城镇化建设的主要渠道;2系统Ⅰ—房地产市场,序参量的空间规律表现为:三线城市>二线城市>一线城市;系统Ⅱ—城镇化建设水平,序参量的空间规律表现为:一线城市>二线城市>三线城市;3我国现阶段房地产市场和城镇化建设水平的耦合度还处于较低水平,且地区差异较大,耦合程度从大到小依次表现为:二线城市>三线城市>一线城市;从协调度来看,整体表现为中度协调,但应注意北京市已表现为低度协调状态。最后本文提出了相应的政策建议:首先要限制一线城市"以速度为纲"的城镇化发展思路;二是依靠房价、信贷和户籍等政策约束引导新型城镇化建设,有效控制一线城市的体量;三是放宽中小城市和城镇户籍限制,鼓励符合条件的农业转移人口逐步在城镇落户,注重提升三线城市的城镇化发展质量。

New urbanization construction is an important development goal which was put forward by the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This construction level directly decides the changing path of China＇ s economic development mode. As the real estate market is an important part of the macro economic operation and the degree of marketization is vital for the urbanization construction, therefore, how to realize the synchronization and coordinated development of the construction of the real estate market and the urbanization is an argent issue to be solved during China＇ s current economic and social development process. This paper used the theoretical model, empirical analysis and system analysis methods to establish ＇the real estate market-urbanization level＇ system （system Ⅰ ： the real estate market; system Ⅱ： urbanization construction level） based on comprehensive index. In order to make policy more targeted and practical, the entropy method was used to obtain the evaluation index weight, and coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the running effect, coupling phase and coordination trend of cities of different grades. Results showed that： ① Real estate sales prices, expectations and credit, and population flow would be applied to the real estate market of the main channel. ②In system Ⅰ , the real estate market, the space law of order parameter would be shown as： third-tier city 〉 second-tier cities 〉 first-tier cities; in system Ⅱ , urbanization construction level, the space law of order parameter would be shown as： first-tier cities 〉 second-tier cities 〉 third-tier cities. ③ The construction levels of urbanization and veal estate in different regions of China were obviously different and the coupling degree was still in a low level. The coupling degree from high to low was ： second-tier cities 〉 third-tier 〉 first-tier cities. From the point of coordination degree, the overall performance was moderate coordination, but Beijing was characterized by low coordination state which should be paid attention to. Finally, the paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations： First, the first-tier cities should avoid the thought of ＇ speed up urbanization＇. Second, in order to effectively control of city size, house prices, credit, and the households registration policy should be used to guide the new urbanization construction. Third, strengthen the development of small and medium-sized cities and small towns by loosening the households registration and encourage qualified agricultural transfer population to gradually obtain urban identity and settle down in cities. Improve urbanization development level in third-tier cities.