中国的环境污染排放会遵循环境库兹涅茨曲线吗?

Will China's Pollution Emissions Follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

一般认为,随着国民收入的提升,污染排放将先增后减,即呈现环境库兹涅茨曲线。然而中国并不能完美地展现这一规律,这可能是中国作为人口与制造业大国的特殊内外因组合所致。将污染排放分为生产污染排放与生活污染排放,作者选取废水（污水）排放量、COD排放量和SO_2排放量三项指标,基于1997年~2013年全国31个省份的面板数据,分别检验生产污染、生活污染人均排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明,中国生产污染排放与生活污染排放存在显著的异步性;随着人口总量的增加、城镇化率的上升以及经济等因素的改变,中国污染排放有些指数的拐点初现,但总体进入转折期的前景尚不明朗。

It is generally believed that, as national incomes rise, countries will experience rising and then decreasing levels of pollution and this pattern is known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC）. Yet China will not completely follow this pattern because of its demographic and industrial characteristics. The authors consider the patterns of China＇s pollution by separating industrial and household emissions. Using panel data from 31 provincial units and variables including waste water discharge, COD emissions, and SO2 emissions, we examine the patterns of industrial and household emissions per capita. We find significant divergence in the emissions patterns, with some variables showing the EKC pattern but the overall prospects for China＇s pollution emissions remain cloudy.