2001～2010年中国能源碳排放与城市扩张脱钩分析

Decoupling analysis of urban expansion and energy carbon emissions at the provincial level,2001～2010,China

城市扩张与工业化、经济发展和能源消费关联紧密，据此构建能源碳排放与城市扩张脱钩分析模型．在此基础上，运用能源消费及城市土地统计数据，分2001～2010年、2001～2006年（“十一五”）、2006～2010年（“十二五”）3个时段，在全国、东中西部、省域3个层面开展中国能源碳排放与城市扩张脱钩关系的比较分析．结果表明，2001～2010年，中国能源碳排放快速增长且增速超过城市土地扩张速度，能源碳排放减排压力较大．能源消费的减排技术、能源消费结构和能源利用效率还亟需提升．“十一五”至“十二五”期间，中国能源碳排放减排压力有所减缓，同时东中西、省域之间差异显著．

Urban expansion links closely with industrialization, economic development and energy consumption. Based on this consideration, decoupling analysis model of urban expansion and energy carbon emissions was first established. Then, comparisons of decoupling analysis of urban expansion and energy carbon emissions in 2001 -2010, 2001 -2006 and 2006 - 2010 at the country level, regional level and provincial level were made by using statistical data. Results show that energy carbon emissions increased more rapidly than urban expansion in 2001 -2010 at the country level. Energy carbon emission reduction faced serious challenges. Specifically, emission reduction technologies related to energy consumption, energy consumption structure and efficiency had much potential to improve. Pressure of energy carbon emission reduction at the country level, however, reduced from 2001 - 2006 to 2006 -2010. Meanwhile, it varied remarkably among Eastern, Central and Western China and provinces.