左右逢源还是进退两难:朴槿惠时期的韩国在中美间的两端外交

Win-Win Situation or Trapped between a Rock and a Hard Place? ROK's Diplomacy between the US and China under President Park Geun-Hye's Administration

随着中美两国在东亚地区战略竞争态势的日益加剧,这一地区的国际行为体以中等国家为代表展开了一系列的两端外交,并将在中美间实现左右逢源作为最优的战略目标。以韩国为例,其在中美间的两端外交就是四个因素综合作用的结果。首先,它受到韩国灵活平衡战略文化传统的影响;其次,它是当前国际体系鼓励的战略行为;再次,它是韩国国内基于国家利益的战略共识;最后,它是朴槿惠总统审时度势的战略决策。对于中等国家来说,实现左右逢源的两端外交需要具备五个基本条件:缓和的两极体系结构,自身充分的战略价值,领导人的战略胆识和外交技巧,克服两端外交的负面效应以及管控各端关系中的冲突因素。具体来说,在战略实践和外交操作方面就包括灵活务实、议题主导和大国关系的积极第三方等核心要素。对于中美两国来说,中等国家实施两端外交,有助于避免双方为争取后者而展开恶性竞争。与此同时,这种战略尝试的成功,也将使得中等国家乐于在中美间扮演积极第三方的角色,从而发挥某种外部战略稳定的作用,进而促进中美间宏观战略环境的整体优化。

As the strategic competition in East Asia between the US and China intensifies,international actors across the region,and particularly middle-power states,have engaged in two sided diplomacy,aiming to win optimal strategic benefits from both the US and China.Taking the example of ROK,we find that its diplomacy between the US and China is a product of four distinct factors.First,it is influenced by Korea's traditional strategic culture,which emphasizes flexibility and balance;second,its strategic behavior follows from the incentives created by the contemporary international system;third,it is based on a strategic consensus regarding national interests rooted in ROK's domestic politics;lastly,it is based on careful strategic policy calculations of the Park Administration.As for middle-power states,in order to obtain benefits from both sides vis-à-vis diplomatic efforts,they must satisfy five basic criteria:there must be part of a moderate bi-polar system;they must have the ability to identify strategic value;their leaders must have strategic acumen and diplomatic poise;they must have the ability to overcome the negative impacts of two sided diplomacy;and they must be able to manage conflicts between the two poles.On a specific level,strategic elements and diplomatic tasks include: maintaining flexibility,agenda setting,and playing apositive third party role between major powers.As for the US and China,when faced with such two sided diplomacy vis-à-vis a middle sized state,this helps the two powers avoid a vicious cycle of competition.At the same time,the success of such strategies also helps middle sized powers play a third party role vis-à-vis the US and China,helping to provide a level of strategic stability to the relationship,while further enhancing the overall strategic environment between the US and China.